I just saw a poll showing McConnell beating McGrath in Kentucky by approximately 20 points. Pathetic, right? I had seen another poll last week showing the same McConnell margin of victory over McGrath, and a comparison with progressive Charles Booker as the candidate. It showed Booker also losing, but by 12 or 14 points--which is also a lot. This morning, I thought I'd check Kentucky's voter registration information. This is what I found:
Male: 1,641,101
Female: 1,834,456
Democrats: 1,677,777
Republicans: 1,491,224
Other (Decline to State): 186,726
Independent: 107,844
Libertarian: 10,215
Green: 1608
Constitution (real old fashioned right wing and racist): 692
Reform (old Perot, now Nativist/Racist): 94
Socialist Worker: 213 (Wow. That is interesting, isn't it?)
Let's start with nearly 200,000 more female registered voters. That should mean run a female in the usual campaign strategist playbook, right? Well, in McConnell's last election in 2014, Dems ran a relatively popular female statewide officeholder, Alison Grimes, and McConnell clobbered her. Grimes suffered from the same problem McGrath does, which was trying to outflank McConnell from the right (Grimes would not say if she voted for Obama in 2012, and often had commercials saying how she'd fight Obama as "your Senator."). Once again, gender doesn't seem to count as anything positive for a Democrat against a Republican.
Then, let's recognize there are still 180,000 more registered Democratic Party voters than Republican voters. Get out the vote, and win, right? Well, know that is not too big a margin, and we see nearly 295,000 voters registered as Other (Decline to State) or Independent. That is a lot of voters disaffected from the duopoly. Good political science studies show such people are often anti-Establishment. However, this is Kentucky, and what we do not know is how many are white and harbor racist views. But, somehow, the African-American progressive firebrand, Booker, would be doing somewhat, but not significantly, better against McConnell. One may have thought racism should have overwhelmed the anti-Establishment perspective, but perhaps it only represents a ceiling of his independent support.
My hope for a Booker nomination had been to register a heck of a lot more unregistered African-Americans. Kentucky's total population is 4,467,673. The percentage of people 18 and older is 78.5%. That would leave 3,194,387, which is weird! That means there are nearly 200,000 voters more registered voters than people. It also means either not enough Kentuckians filled out the census forms, or worse, Republican officeholders, who essentially control the State, are not purging dead people or people leaving the State from voter registration rolls, or, worst of all, adding nonexistent registered voters.
I leave it to someone who has more deeply studied Kentucky politics to tell me how people vote for McConnell regardless of the population issue. I would think a Democratic Senator would bring home more "bacon" than McConnell, a full-on corporatist. Also, in recent years, McConnell's corruption and fealty to corporations should be obvious to more Kentucky voters. However, it seems McGrath has no chance to beat McConnell. She excites nobody outside of a few people, and, had Booker received corporate media publicity a month before he did, he would most likely have won the primary over McGrath. But all the same, Booker would still likely lose to McConnell, as we see how Kentucky's actual voters behave in that State's general elections.
If anyone wants to donate to a political lost cause that would at least make us feel good, I'd recommend Shahid Buttar's race against that classic corporate enabler-virtue signaler, Nancy Pelosi. In that race, the battle we need inside the Democratic Party is worth the effort. Buttar is an amazing candidate, and has just raised his first million in the two person race. He won a paltry 13% of the vote in CA's "jungle primary," but beat every Republican, so there are two Democrats running against each other (Buttar and Pelosi) for November, with no write in or third party. Pelosi's district is essentially San Francisco. My take is, if Buttar gets more money, he can compete over the airwaves, and let people know about him and why he is the better candidate. Sending Pelosi home would definitely send shockwaves through the corporate Democratic Party establishment and their enablers in corporate media. Forget about McGrath. She looks like toast. Buttar is the more fun, more hopeful, and more revolutionary candidate to support.
