I've said it before on Facebook/Meta. I'll say it again. There is a growing (though today still relatively small) chance Trump will be removed from the Republican ballot at the Republican Party convention this August. His cognitive abilities are clearly on the decline in ways that if this was Biden, legacy corporate media would be all over it. I also think he may be convicted in the DC criminal trial by then, which will be a cause of marked decline in swing voter support.
It is my view Biden is even more likely than Trump to not be on the ballot at the Democratic Party convention this August--unless Biden's polling numbers dramatically improve and he avoids what I see as the inevitable physical fall that occurs with people who are 80 or older. I can see Biden stepping aside for CA gov Gavin Newsom, who is now a leading active campaigner for Biden, or some surprise candidate. This will result in a 90 day sprint and the media will be relatively slow to catch up if the Dems use the advertising power that corporate Dems have--and bankers decide it is better to let the Dems win than the Republicans--as Republicans continue to show themselves incapable of governance in a way that threatens the function of American society.
Biden's replacement will likely want to muddy the Israel-Palestine issue. Newsom or another replacement candidate will utter sufficient generalities towards Palestinian rights, and talk of two state solutions. This will ensure sufficient confusion among most who are not fully engaged with the history of the region and issue. The generalities will also come in a context where, by the summer, Israel's permanent displacement of Palestinians from Gaza will likely be essentially completed. Israel will, for its part, likely cool its repression for 90 days in the West Bank so that people are again fooled. Then, in 2025, Israel will start again its major settlement building and we will see even more displacement of Palestinians in the West Bank. This is the consistent Zionist project, regardless of the delusions of Americans who think of themselves as "liberal" Zionists.
In any event, the 90 day sprint with a new Democratic candidate will also likely bring younger people back into the Dem fold, as there is no Republican replacement who will be both acceptable to the Republican base and to the general public. The Dems will advertise hard on the abortion issue and LGBTQ rights. This is not to imply those latter two issues are not important issues. They are important, especially when one issue affects tens of millions of LGBTQ Americans, and the abortion issue so, so many women. What remains frustrating, though, is regardless of the fact the vast majority of Americans are live-and-let-live on LGBTQ issues, and recognize now more than ever that abortion is about women's health and bodily autonomy, we have a political structure that gives more power to the minority of Americans who believe the flawed interpretation of their Christian religious philosophy (other religions don't have this level of being anti-abortion). It is therefore an issue, particularly with a revanchist, right wing Supreme Court majority. Thus, these are salient and important issues.
But what that also means is this: Palestinians are the leading sacrificial lambs in American politics. Other sacrificial lambs are those of us who recognize the need for fighting the effects of climate change and overcoming global corporate driven inequality. Again, this is why I support the growing and continuing agitation for Palestinian rights against genocidal enabling politicians, particularly in the Democratic Party. The Palestinian issue helps those agitating better connect the dots to the military-industrial-fossil fuel complex. And It remains my hope young people continue to be more open to challenging capitalist ideological domination and see a social democratic future expressed in public policies.
