Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Reagan 1980; Bernie 2020?

The Week's Brendan Morrow thinks Bernie is running again.

People can say all they want against Bernie Sanders: He's too old; he is not a registered Democrat; he's too far left, in that phony corporate media parlance where the words liberal, conservative, moderate, etc. are never defined; etc. 

But what amazes me about Bernie are: (1) his stamina as he continues a grueling travel schedule supporting progressive Democrats around the nation, showing he is in great shape to run for president; and (2) the way in which Bernie continues to contribute to a positive discourse about public policies which, as I have long noted, a majority of Americans now agree. Bernie changed worldviews of people across our nation, and did so while not even winning the Democratic Party's 2016 primaries.

For those searching for historical parallels, I am wondering if Bernie Sanders is Ronald Reagan in this respect: In 1976, Ronald Reagan mounted a primary challenge to Gerald Ford, the incumbent president. Reagan lost to Ford, and there was much bitterness in the Republican Party as Ford lost a close election to the Democratic Party's candidate, the upstart Jimmy Carter. In 1980, Reagan ran again, and faced multiple challengers, including the establishment Republican's favorite, George Herbert Walker Bush. Reagan was older than nearly any other candidate running, and was one of the oldest presidents ever elected president. Reagan was also a hard right ideologue, but it was Reagan's likability that helped him with swing voters, the way I think Bernie keeps topping polling as the most popular politician in the nation ("He speaks his mind; he's honest", etc. is what people tend to think when they think of Bernie). 

And let's play out this historical parallel a bit further: Would Reagan still have won if third party "liberal" Republican John Anderson not run an independent campaign in the fall 1980 campaign, after Anderson was one of the Republicans Reagan beat in the very rancorous Republican primary? I think the final election result in a Carter v. Reagan election race would have been much closer (The 1980 results were:  Anderson with roughly 7%, Reagan 49% and Carter 42%, with less than 1% for the Citizen's Party of Barry Commoner and Ladonna Harris) but Reagan would likely have won in any event. Note, too, Reagan had some coattails in Senate races as people like George McGovern (D-SD) and John Culver (D-IA) lost to much more ideologically conservative Republicans. 

The one thing I would say to those wanting to repeat this historical incident is my advice to Bernie is pick a like minded but young progressive for VP almost immediately to run to Iowa and NH and elsewhere, and a person who is a woman or a person who is not "white." Reagan, of course, had given in to Establishment Republicans and chose Bush as his VP, hoping Bush would coalesce ideologically, which Bush, sad to say, did.  This, however, is a different time in one respect: Bernie's ideas and platforms, as noted before, are what the majority of Americans want to see enacted.  Bernie has no reason to compromise with neo-liberals and corporate Democrats.  The point is to win the majority of Americans' support, and to show America Democrats mean what they say as a party of the "people" or as I like to say, let's have a true Labor Party the way we thought of Democratic Party policies in the New Deal and post-New Deal era.

All in all, I say, let's roll, Bernie.  Let's roll!

Oh, and if someone wants to say Hillary Clinton's parallel is Richard Nixon, who lost in 1960, lost a gubernatorial election in 1962, and then roared back to squeak out the presidency in 1968 with 44% of the vote, in an election where third party candidate George Wallace won 13% of the vote, and Humphrey the Democrat won 43% of the vote, I would call that a stretch.  Hillary Clinton is more akin to that other HC in American history, Henry Clay.  Henry, like Hillary, had done too many compromises so that nobody really trusted him, and Clay was never able to convince a majority of Americans he would have their overall interests at heart.  I liked Henry Clay in lots of ways as his best biographer, Carl Schurz, explained in an 1888 biography (never have I seen a better bio, and one should be written with Schurz's gravitas), but he was still a compromised candidate.  So, sorry to Hillary Clinton fans, which have dwindled considerably, as I always said her support is a mile wide and inch deep, but this nation cannot afford a Hillary Clinton candidacy in 2020.  It is a dangerous time, and we need to go with our best hopes, not compromised candidates, when going up against a candidate who emotionally affects people the way Trump does.  Trump runs on fear and hate. The best candidate must run, substantively and stylistically, on trust and love.