Sunday, November 29, 2020

My thoughts on the US Senate runoff races in Georgia

Other than a drop in Trumpist/racist/fascist turnout in Georgia, I don't see either the Jewish guy (Osoff) or the black guy (Warnock) defeating the Republican Senatorial candidates, Purdue and Loeffler. 

The apparently final numbers for the three way race among Purdue, Osoff, and the right wing anti-coronavirus shutdown and gun extremist "libertarian" (Hazel) showed Purdue ahead of Osoff by nearly 90,000 votes, with another 110,000 votes for the "libertarian." I would bet the vast majority of Hazel voters who bother to vote will pull the level for Purdue, not Osoff. That's at least 110,000 vote swing Osoff would have to get to beat Purdue, even with a depressed Republican/right wing libertarian turnout.

Warnock did win in a plurality, but when adding the votes Loeffler and Collins, the two Republicans, received, the number of votes for the three candidates is even more far apart. Warnock won 1.617 million votes. However, the two Republicans combined for 2.17 million votes. That is a delta of 500,000 votes Warnock will have to make up in a two person race. I can see lots of right wingers and Republicans who voted for Collins going, "So what if Loeffler goes to jail for insider trading? We'll just replace her with another Republican." They will not be voting for the black guy who is a Democrat in the modern sense, meaning corporate or progressive.

The bottom line is this: Do we really think the Trumpist/racist/fascist turnout is going to be that much smaller in January 2021? I guess, um, maybe, but I don't see much hope. 

My advice continues to be, if you have extra money you want to spend on the Georgia senate or down ballot races that may well be more able to effect longer term change there, it's in getting out the Democratic base vote, and maybe supporting some third party PACs attack ads against Loeffler and Purdue, in order to soften support for those two awful people. And, progressives, don't think Ossoff or Warnock are going to be calling The Squad or Bernie Sanders for any advice if they win.

Sunday, November 22, 2020

There are only two principles conservatives tend to have

I love how conservatives so often express their short-term political cynicism in a language of principle.  Here is US Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) explaining why he would oppose fellow-senator Bernie Sanders becoming a Labor Secretary:

I think that is somebody who we know is an ideologue and, well, it would be very unlikely he would be confirmed in a Republican-held Senate...

Really, now, an "ideologue"?  Wasn't Steve Mnuchin an ideologue for corporate capitalism? How about Eugene Scalia, who is Trump's Labor Secretary, a man who, besides being the offspring of a judicial ideologue, Antonin Scalia, is deeply and ideologically opposed to labor rights and labor unions from his significant experience as an anti-union lawyer for a large law firm? How's that for being an ideologue? Oh, and there is the matter of Cornyn voting for The Handmaid to ascend to the US Supreme Court a few weeks before the election, when he refused to give Merrick Garland a hearing in 2016, nine months before the election. We know, if the current position was reversed, and it was a Republican-elect president coming into office, we would hear about the principle that senators should support a fellow senator out of professional senatorial courtesy, as was the line to allow John Ashcroft to become Bush-Cheney's Attorney General.  And let's recall Ashcroft had just been defeated in Missouri as an incumbent senator. 

Really, Cornyn, how dare you abuse language in this manner?

Sadly, it is important in this moment to remind ourselves that the essence of conservatism, whether political, economic, or cultural, is the defense of privilege. It is the only real principle such people often have. Everything else for conservative politicians especially boils down to their other "principle," which may be expressed as "Heads I win, Tails you lose." Conservative politicians, and here Cornyn is typical, will, depending upon the moment, switch out any previously stated principle for the one goal of gaining and maintaining power.  

Let's be clear: Cornyn's statement is not about the principle of opposing someone who is an ideologue. What Cornyn means is he won't allow President-elect Biden to choose anyone for labor secretary who would actually be pro-labor.

Thursday, November 19, 2020

Originalists don't know constitutional or political American history, Part Whatever: Ted Cruz edition

I was flipping around at YouTube and saw US Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) spoke, with his usual arrogance, in the Senate about originalism.  Here it is.  In this video excerpt, Cruz says the 14th Amendment codified, once and for all, in the US Constitution, equal protection under the laws, but gave the example that schools should not be segregated by race.  He then said, Plessy v. Ferguson (1896), which upheld the separate but equal doctrine, was wrong because the 14th Amendment meant equal protection under the laws, something it took the US Supreme Court to reverse in Brown v. Board of Education (1954). 

There are two immediate problems here: First, at the time the 14th Amendment was ratified, there were already racially segregated schools in Washington, DC, and other places, and nothing in the debates at the time which would prove the majority of Congressmen were going to immediately outlaw racially segregated schools. See this excellent summary of originalism and its limitations in Vox. Second, Plessy was about segregation allowed in public transportation, not schools, so it is not that Brown overruled Plessy on segregated schools; it overruled Plessy on the basis that separate but equal was a false doctrine based upon logic that could no longer be morally enforced. 

Cruz opened his argument with a non-sequitur, which is to deny originalism is about original intent. Instead, he said it meant original meaning. That remains so funny to me, since one of the original expounders of originalism, Justice Story, stated the Constitution, as with all written "instruments," is to be construed "according to the sense of the terms, and the intentions of the parties." Robert Bork, another originalist, in Bork's polemical work, The Tempting of America, favorably cited to Story's statement (see page 6 of the book). Bork, in his book, preferred to use the phrase "original understanding," which is sort of like Scalia's semantical dodge, "original meaning."  I call both semantical dodges because each jurist wants us to believe they don't mean the intent of the Constitution's framers, or later entire Congresses and Presidents, but they are somehow discerning the meaning of the Constitution through the general understanding of words used at that time. So, the people who write the laws, and the words contained in the laws, are somehow not part of the people in the society in which they lived while they were writing the laws?  There is a better word for these originalists' type of argument: sophistry.*

This is not to say there is no philosophical foundation for originalism.  Indeed, in 1827, Justice John Marshall, in Ogden v. Saunders, wrote:

On this subject also, the Court has taken such frequent occasion to declare its opinion as to make it unnecessary, at least, to enter again into an elaborate discussion of it. To say that the intention of the instrument must prevail; that this intention must be collected from its words; that its words are to be understood in that sense in which they are generally used by those for whom the instrument was intended; that its provisions are neither to be restricted into insignificance nor extended to objects not comprehended in them, nor contemplated by its framers is to repeat what has been already said more at large and is all that can be necessary.

Yet, it was Marshall who expounded on what originalists themselves have called "living Constitution" theory, in M'Culloch v. Maryland, where Marshall opined:

To have prescribed the means by which Government should, in all future time, execute its powers would have been to change entirely the character of the instrument and give it the properties of a legal code. It would have been an unwise attempt to provide by immutable rules for exigencies which, if foreseen at all, must have been seen dimly, and which can be best provided for as they occur. To have declared that the best means shall not be used, but those alone without which the power given would be nugatory, would have been to deprive the legislature of the capacity to avail itself of experience, to exercise its reason, and to accommodate its legislation to circumstances. 

And then, a few years later, in Gibbons v. Ogden (1824), Marshall ripped into those who would support any strict construction of the Constitution, saying it would cripple the government's ability to respond to changing situations and viewpoints. He said:

What do gentlemen mean by a "strict construction?" If they contend only against that enlarged construction, which would extend words beyond their natural and obvious import, we might question the application of the term, but should not controvert the principle. If they contend for that narrow construction which, in support or some theory not to be found in the Constitution, would deny to the government those powers which the words of the grant, as usually understood, import, and which are consistent with the general views and objects of the instrument; for that narrow construction which would cripple the government and render it unequal to the object for which it is declared to be instituted, and to which the powers given, as fairly understood, render it competent; then we cannot perceive the propriety of this strict construction, nor adopt it as the rule by which the Constitution is to be expounded.

Marshall then went on to say we should still look to the words expressed and how they were intended to be construed, which of course begs the question once again.  We really should go back to James Madison, in Federalist Paper no. 37, where Madison admitted a lot of terms and phrases in the Constitution are vague, and will only be rendered understandable in posterity, and with experience in the situations which will arise. Jack Balkin, American University law professor, holds to my view of originalism as a dodge when conservatives use the term, and is really more what Madison is talking about, which is far more subtle and recognizes perhaps a degree of humility in the art of statutory and Constitutional interpretation. 

Cruz is just another bomb thrower, and his understanding of American history, let alone constitutional history, is only deep in its shallowness.

*I should add that, when I confronted Scalia about not knowing the framers' intent in any case he had ever heard as a jurist--this was at a law seminar, during a lawyers' conference in Orange County in 1995, sponsored by Orange County's Chabad (the conference was about Jewish law and Anglo-American jurisprudence), Scalia did not challenge me to say he was only defining "originalism" to be about "meaning," and "not (subjective) intent."  The audience of at least 500 lawyers in the room knew what each of us were talking about, as I had multiple people come up to me saying I had slayed Scalia with one question in the question and answer period following his debate on originalism with the now late Judge Reinhardt, the liberal 9th Circuit jurist. Reinhardt was, of course, against Scalia's originalism, but did a poor job in defending his own position, which was frankly vague, and devoid of any true knowledge of constitutional and political history. As I have noted before, Reinhardt refused to speak with me after that performance, while Scalia was charming and kind with me, which proved what people said about the guy, which is Scalia loved a good debate.

Saturday, November 14, 2020

Trump's plan all along was to create his own television/Internet channel

What is amusing about Trump now openly stating his intention to create his own television network to rival and undermine FoxNews is this was Trump's original plan in 2015. Trump had seen how Sarah Palin, after being part of a losing national political campaign, raised tens of millions of dollars as she dangled her idea to run for president in 2012, and then, at the last minute, decided against it. Trump also tired of his continual negotiations with NBC over "The Apprentice," as the show's popularity continually waned after a big-hit premiere season. Trump really went "off the rails" when he learned pop singer (and former indie rocker) Gwen Stefani was making more money per episode of "The Voice" than he was on "The Apprentice." 

Trump, of course, had it in for Obama, with the endless tweets during Obama's second term especially, which tweets ironically have proven to apply more to Trump. Trump therefore decided he would run for president, and expected, and actually wanted, to lose--but, in the meantime, build an Internet-based television network that also relied heavily on social media to promote the network. Then, a sad thing happened to Trump. He won in 2016. It is why there is evidence of Trump and his wife being so weirdly sad the night he won in 2016. The only thing Trump cared about then was to figure out a way to make the grift work while in the White House. That helps explain why he didn't care for following norms in the transition, as he was already focused on how he would leverage his properties for White House business, continue to play golf nearly every week, and ensure the government compensated his various businesses he was going to be still conducting.

Of course, the irony is FoxNews was initially wary of Trump, as Roger Ailes knew Trump for decades and knew Trump was a con man. However, FoxNews eventually fell in line with its viewers, who were swooning to Trump's siren song, so cleverly crafted over the Obama years and with a symbiotic relationship to right-wing hate talk radio--even as, in the waning weeks of the 2016, Trump was already plotting to create his own Trump branded network to rival FoxNews. 

However, this new push for a TrumpTV network hinges on Trump not being indicted or convicted following his one-term presidency. This is why Trump needs to continue creating enough chaos for leverage to negotiate federal and state pardons for him and the Trump Family Syndicate. If Trump gets his pardons, Trump will certainly find financial institutions and groups ready to lend him money to spew truly Q-Anon level poison into the homes and motor vehicles of his never-give-up fans. Trump will finally have won what he actually sought, and not be as bothered by ethics rules and laws any longer.  

Monday, November 9, 2020

The Electoral College is now as divorced from the popular vote as much as the stock market is divorced from Main Street and American consumers

Well, here we are. 

As of late this afternoon, New Mexico time, Biden is up to 50.75% of the nationwide vote, and rising, while Trump is coasting downward toward 47%. Biden has now achieved a percentage level which is higher than presidential winners from 1976, 1980, 1988 (this was the one where Bush I beat Dukakis by 50.7%), 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2016. And the popular vote differential is now about 4.75 million. Yet, Biden is at "only" 290 Electoral College "votes" if one also counts AZ, where it looks like Biden will also prevail, though much closer than was previously thought. 

It is time to say the Electoral College fails to speaks to the popular vote at this point in US history the way the stock market fails to speak to Main Street and consumers.

As I survey the state vote counts in remaining battleground states, I am thinking Biden looks like he will win GA, while Trump wins NC (I don't have any clue why that was not called for Trump days ago). So Biden will end up with 306 EC "votes," the same number Trump won in 2016.

As I have said, this election result is what Dem leadership wanted, which was a referendum on Trump. Too bad as Republicans prevailed in even more state houses and kept the senate. A poor strategy ultimately. This election must really hurt Trump's narcissistic ego as this result is a personal rejection of Trump. What has to also be said is the election is not a rejection of the ideologies and delusions that brought him to power in the first place. 

The only hope I have is more of us Boomers and Oldsters may not be around as this new decade continues to move forward. Kids, you must continue to take to the streets, continue to agitate, and push for The People's Party (and be very active in leading its direction). I am willing to defer to the young folks, and merely provide historical data where I will also say, Make your own history, do not be afraid to be bold, and be guided more by helping others more vulnerable than you, including other creatures on this planet, and the planet itself--rather than helping yourselves.

Sunday, November 8, 2020

Progressive brand actually better than Democrats' and certainly Neo-liberal brands

 What David Doel says.  Except that Katie Porter won by about seven points, not 20.

And Mike Figueredo is correct here and here.

Andrew Yang is correct, too, about the Democrats' toxic brand in so many places, and why the Dems need a coherent economic message, when the Republicans have a coherent cultural message. I just don't like when Andrew falls for the coastal/city mouse vs internal/country mouse dichotomy, when we can see economic messaging can be unifying from a populist perspective.

Saturday, November 7, 2020

More thoughts as dust continues to settle...Also, The People's Party is an independent party, not a third party

Is it me or did Biden have no real coattails, and in fact, often ran behind in any state not already deep Blue? 

Brianna Joy Gray, Bernie's former press secretary (who I adore, by the way), said on her show Bad Faith that if Bernie's performance led to the Dems not gaining back the Senate, we'd never hear the end of what a mistake it was to nominate him, and how he was a drag on downballot races.  It is worth listening and watching her clip from the November 5 show she uploaded on her Twitter account.  

If Biden does prevail, as is increasingly likely--though I think Biden may still lose AZ in the process, and therefore run way behind the Dem Senate candidate Mark Kelly, who beat an incumbent Republican--we have to really begin to treat Biden and Harris as largely Republican-oriented opponents. And by Republican, I mean Republicans circa 1976.

The pro-Establishment Dems propaganda from MSNBC and CNN will continue, which is why I say we need an independent political party such as The People's Party. It is important to not call The People's Party a third party. There is no second party in this nation on issues of the Empire and the systemic inequality that pervades the United States. The Dems and Reeps are merely two wings of the same party, which is The Property Party (Gore Vidal called them that for decades, and he was correct then, and correct now nearly a decade after his death in 2012). We should acknowledge the differences in the two wings, starting on the quality of judicial appointments, and some acceptance of scientific realities. But they are still two wings representing the Owners of this nation, not the rest of us.

The People's Party represents a party independent of corporate power and money. It is truly a party independent from The Property Party. And once we join, it is no longer relevant for Dems to say, Oh you are spoilers. If enough young people join, the Dems will be told the Dems are the spoilers. This occurred with Bernie and Dems in Vermont, and I see a possibility we can make that happen nationally. The Dems' brand is toxic for many rural and working class white people, and increasingly among Latino and Black working class people. It is past time to acknowledge this, and move forward.